COVID cases are starting to show early signs of slowing – as outbreaks in Delta variant hotspots “level off”.
Government statistic appear to show the rate of increase in daily infections have started to slow, and the Covid Symptom Study is also showing similar indicators.
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Infection rates are starting to level off in most parts of the country after rising
Unvaccinated people are seeing a rise in cases greater than vaccinated people, but both are starting to see it levelling off
Professor Tim Spector, lead scientist on the ZOE Covid app, said: “The numbers this week seem to be slowing down, which is good news.
“Worrying areas with a high number of cases like Scotland, and the North West are starting to level off.
“Wales in particular has seen tangible benefits from a faster than average vaccination rate, where they previously had some of the highest rates in the country, we are now seeing clear protection against rises.
“Wales is now several weeks ahead of the rest of the UK in terms of vaccinations, so it looks like the rest of us will soon follow suit.
“I’m predicting based on past experience, that although we may not have reached the peak quite yet, within 2 weeks we will see cases beginning to drop again.”
Around 15,760 people in Britain are thought to be catching the virus each day – which is a third up on last week, when the total had doubled.
This suggests the rate is slowing, although the risk of getting infected is still high in the unvaccinated.
The Zoe study found the risk each day for someone who hasn’t been jabbed in the UK is one in 2,093.
The North West and parts of Scotland are still seeing high case figures but the rest of the country has levelled out
New cases in the UK running up to June 12, with the peak starting to slowly level out
The positivity rate of those who have been vaccinated and those who haven’t
Prof Spector thinks we have not yet breached the peak of this wave, brought on by the Delta variant’s rapid spread.
But he believes within 10-12 days the UK will start to see the beginning of the end of the summer wave of cases.
He added: “Boris Johnson’s decision this week to delay the lifting of all restrictions in the UK, was a difficult but probably necessary one.
“It’s good to see decisions being made from the data, not dates.
“Life is better than it was, where we can go out and see friends and family, so having a few more weeks will give us the time and space to get more people vaccinated.
“We have already seen that being fully vaccinated dramatically reduces both the likelihood of contracting the virus, as well as severity of symptoms, so it’s crucial that everyone eligible for the vaccine gets the first or second jab as soon as possible.”
Department of Health figures show that after positive tests soared at the start of June, the rate of increase has started to slow.
‘STARTING TO LEVEL OFF’
But scientists working on a different stud have warned cases are “increasing exponentially”.
Experts from the React study say it’s not clear when the growth will slow down, and if this will be before the July 19 lockdown lift.
It comes after the Prime Minister confirmed June 21 won’t be the hoped for “Freedom Day”.
This is due to rapidly rising cases of the Delta variant, first identified in India, and an increase of hospitalisations.
He gravely explained: “We can simply keep going with all of Step 4 on June 21, even though there is a real possibility that the virus will outrun the vaccines and that thousands more deaths would ensue which could otherwise have been avoided.
“Or else we can give the NHS a few more crucial weeks to get those remaining jabs into the arms of those who need them.”
He added that by July 19 around two-thirds of the adult population would have had two jabs, including all over-50s, the vulnerable and health and care workers, and the over-40s.
Mr Johnson said: “To do this we will now accelerate the second jabs for those over 40, just as we did for the vulnerable groups, so they get the maximum protection as fast as possible.
“We will bring forward our target to give every adult in this country a first dose by July 19.”